Does Cameron need Blair after all?

I have just posted this on Once More:

I saw it on Newsnight first. “Money” shouted Brown to Blair. “Money” he shouted again. I have watched Brown deliberately leave Blair to die many times, but something has changed and he has come furiously alive.

It is very possible that 2006 might have been an interesting political year but until this week that interest might conceivably have completely excluded the Tories. Now, we are in for one of the most exciting political years for a decade and the Tories are the cause and centre of it.

David Cameron has provoked Gordon Brown into action more than he will ever know. There are now two public school boys blocking Gordon’s path to Number 10 and he will do his utmost to kill both of them. Never, NEVER, have the Tories needed Blair to hang onto power more than they do now. The longer Blair holds Brown out of Number 10, the more likely Cameron will survive.

The only military political analogy I ever permit myself to use is that of “winning the fire-fight”. The fire-fight starts when you attack the opposition. For 15 years we, the Tories, have attacked Labour many times but have always failed to stand firm against the inevitable onslaught that follows. This time, it must be different.

To understand how this Labour onslaught will look, you simply must read the following article by Andrew Rawnsley in today's Observer. It is the article I would have written myself but he is paid to get their first. (As an aside, with talent like this in the market place, one wonders what on earth the Telegraph were thinking about when they recruited that pompous, aging, out of touch tosser Simon Heffer. I hope this venerable paper is not losing it just when things get interesting.)

David Cameron has provoked Gordon Brown into action more than he will ever know. There are now two public school boys blocking Gordon’s path to Number 10 and he will do his utmost to kill both of them. Never, NEVER, have the Tories needed Blair to hang onto power more than they do now. The longer Blair holds Brown out of Number 10, the more likely Cameron will survive.

Cameron must call off any tactic designed to alienate Blair from his own party. He needs Blair where he is for as long as possible. He needs to let the Labour back benchers defeat him and “punish” him. If Cameron saves Blair, he will unify Labour behind Brown, will hasten Blair’s departure and the moment when Brown moves on to kill him. As you read this article, you can be sure of one thing – the Granita deal is off. Brown comes first and Blair’s leadership is over. It can be clean or messy. Blair alone decides whether he keeps his political life.

So what is going to happen? Well I am no oracle, but I’m prepared to make some suggestions:

Brown will harness the first opportunity to defeat Blair in the House;
He will then tell Blair that he can go or be pushed;
He will then push him;
Game over for Blair by April 06;
Brown should be in place by June /July, but only after a bruising and divisive battle against a Blairite youth candidate (Milliband or someone);
Brown will then risk all as early as he can, by committing to bring troops home from Iraq by Christmas;
He will take flack, but he will guess that he has time to recover but what he aims to recover is the trust of a large support base that has drifted away and potentially even stopped voting;
He will clear out the Blairites;
He will believe that if he can persuade the British people that they have had the change they appear to want, they will cease to hanker after the Tories.

Here perhaps is the only opportunity for Cameron. Just as the Tories have traditionally veered to the right when the pressure mounts, Brown will sprint to the left. Its instinctive. He won’t be able to help himself.

So between now and the moment of Blair’s demise, Cameron must sink as many anchors into the political centre ground as he possibly can. To do so will further force Brown to go East, as they used to say. I am really guessing here, but could it possibly be the case that Blair might actually try to help Cameron by holding on as long as he can?

So here is the most fascinating dilemma for Cameron and the Tories. Opposing Brown is the best chance they will have of returning to Government, but just how long do you want that battle to last. Just how long a fire-fight do you think you can endure, survive and win. 2010 just can't come quickly enough!

2005 has offered us the 60th Anniversary of the end of the 2nd World War and the 200th Anniversary of the Battle of Trafalgar. 2006 offers us the 200th Anniversary of the birth of Mozart.

If Cameron is to survive, then he will need the balls and determination of Churchill, the appeal and skill of Nelson and the sheer youthful genius of Mozart.

There, how’s that for a sign off!!