Friday, 16 December 2005

Flibby Floppies

Please let's be clear about one thing.

The Liberals showing in the last general election may have been the best result for 80 years or some such nonsense, but it had absolutely nothing to do with Charles Kennedy. Indeed it was in spite of him. It had everything to do with Blair leading the Labour Party and Howard the Conservatives. So basically, I am just pointing out that, amid this joyless Lib Dem suicide attempt, there is absolutely no substance behind the claim that Kennedy is safe because he is the finest Liberal leader since Lloyd George.

I could wax long and lyrical about Kennedy's political inadequacies, but frankly I have neither the will nor the time. He and I both know that the election result was a fake and that the nation is no more likely to elect a Hebridean to Downing Street than they are to elect me.

What really gets me thinking is why Cameron is fuelling the fire and hastening his demise. I mean, why remove one unelectable and highly unappealing man, only to risk his being replaced by someone less unelectable.

Perhaps his cunning plan is to make the Liberals more appealing so that Gordon Brown looks like a dinosaur rather than just a caveman. Maybe he thinks that he needs both a Conservative and Liberal resurgence to really put the sqeaks into Labour.

I haven't quite worked it out yet so I shall watch this particular strategy with interest, especially as I have to defeat the Liberals in my District Council election in May. What if my opponent takes the advice and turns Blue?

Oi, Cameron......

Monday, 12 December 2005

Not bad for a silly computer game

You might just figure out that this is a silly little test thing and the link should work so that you too can have your character summed up (pretty accurately) in a few lines. "Despise" is a bit strong, but perhaps any of my previous bosses might leave an appropriate comment. Otherwise I would be fairly happy. Come to think of it, that's probably why I was never such a success in the Army!!

***Your Birthdate: May 7***

You are an island.

You don't need anyone else to make you happy. (No, Lara, honestly I do)

And though you see yourself as a loner, people are drawn to you. (Come a bit closer, I can't see you)

Deep and sensitive, you tend to impress others with your insights. (That's why you read this blog you see)

You also tend to be psychic - so listen to that inner voice!

Your strength: Your self sufficiency
Your weakness: You despise authority (teeny bit strong!)
Your power color: Maroon (Maroon??????)
Your power symbol: Hammer
Your power month: July

What Does Your Birth Date Mean?

Many thanks to James Hellyer for the idea. It seems he is born only 6 days before me, and to be honest I rather like his description better than my own:

Your Birthday: May 1st

You are a natural born leader, even if those leadership talents haven't been developed yet.

You have the power and self confidence to succeed in life, and your power grows daily.

Besides power, you also have a great deal of creativity that enables you to innovate instead of fail.

You are a visionary, seeing the big picture instead of all of the trivial little details.

Your strength: Your supreme genius

Your weakness: Your inappropriate sensitivity

Your power color: Gold

Your power symbol: Star

Your power month: January

Sunday, 11 December 2005

Does Cameron need Blair after all?

I have just posted this on Once More:

I saw it on Newsnight first. “Money” shouted Brown to Blair. “Money” he shouted again. I have watched Brown deliberately leave Blair to die many times, but something has changed and he has come furiously alive.

It is very possible that 2006 might have been an interesting political year but until this week that interest might conceivably have completely excluded the Tories. Now, we are in for one of the most exciting political years for a decade and the Tories are the cause and centre of it.

David Cameron has provoked Gordon Brown into action more than he will ever know. There are now two public school boys blocking Gordon’s path to Number 10 and he will do his utmost to kill both of them. Never, NEVER, have the Tories needed Blair to hang onto power more than they do now. The longer Blair holds Brown out of Number 10, the more likely Cameron will survive.

The only military political analogy I ever permit myself to use is that of “winning the fire-fight”. The fire-fight starts when you attack the opposition. For 15 years we, the Tories, have attacked Labour many times but have always failed to stand firm against the inevitable onslaught that follows. This time, it must be different.

To understand how this Labour onslaught will look, you simply must read the following article by Andrew Rawnsley in today's Observer. It is the article I would have written myself but he is paid to get their first. (As an aside, with talent like this in the market place, one wonders what on earth the Telegraph were thinking about when they recruited that pompous, aging, out of touch tosser Simon Heffer. I hope this venerable paper is not losing it just when things get interesting.)

David Cameron has provoked Gordon Brown into action more than he will ever know. There are now two public school boys blocking Gordon’s path to Number 10 and he will do his utmost to kill both of them. Never, NEVER, have the Tories needed Blair to hang onto power more than they do now. The longer Blair holds Brown out of Number 10, the more likely Cameron will survive.

Cameron must call off any tactic designed to alienate Blair from his own party. He needs Blair where he is for as long as possible. He needs to let the Labour back benchers defeat him and “punish” him. If Cameron saves Blair, he will unify Labour behind Brown, will hasten Blair’s departure and the moment when Brown moves on to kill him. As you read this article, you can be sure of one thing – the Granita deal is off. Brown comes first and Blair’s leadership is over. It can be clean or messy. Blair alone decides whether he keeps his political life.

So what is going to happen? Well I am no oracle, but I’m prepared to make some suggestions:

Brown will harness the first opportunity to defeat Blair in the House;
He will then tell Blair that he can go or be pushed;
He will then push him;
Game over for Blair by April 06;
Brown should be in place by June /July, but only after a bruising and divisive battle against a Blairite youth candidate (Milliband or someone);
Brown will then risk all as early as he can, by committing to bring troops home from Iraq by Christmas;
He will take flack, but he will guess that he has time to recover but what he aims to recover is the trust of a large support base that has drifted away and potentially even stopped voting;
He will clear out the Blairites;
He will believe that if he can persuade the British people that they have had the change they appear to want, they will cease to hanker after the Tories.

Here perhaps is the only opportunity for Cameron. Just as the Tories have traditionally veered to the right when the pressure mounts, Brown will sprint to the left. Its instinctive. He won’t be able to help himself.

So between now and the moment of Blair’s demise, Cameron must sink as many anchors into the political centre ground as he possibly can. To do so will further force Brown to go East, as they used to say. I am really guessing here, but could it possibly be the case that Blair might actually try to help Cameron by holding on as long as he can?

So here is the most fascinating dilemma for Cameron and the Tories. Opposing Brown is the best chance they will have of returning to Government, but just how long do you want that battle to last. Just how long a fire-fight do you think you can endure, survive and win. 2010 just can't come quickly enough!

2005 has offered us the 60th Anniversary of the end of the 2nd World War and the 200th Anniversary of the Battle of Trafalgar. 2006 offers us the 200th Anniversary of the birth of Mozart.

If Cameron is to survive, then he will need the balls and determination of Churchill, the appeal and skill of Nelson and the sheer youthful genius of Mozart.

There, how’s that for a sign off!!

Thursday, 8 December 2005

Cameron wins!

To kick off, I thought I would share an insightful remark offered by my tennis loving postie. "He's sort of the Andy Murray of politics, isn't he?!!" Well said, Postie.

Very strikingly, the media are listening and watching attentively. Indeed more attentively than I have ever seen. It’s not just that they might appreciate a more interesting political climate. They sense something very substantial and they are communicating it well. We simply can't underestimate how important it will be to have the BBC, Times and the Sun being pleasant to us again. Even Jonathan Friedland's article in the Guardian, which I thoroughly enjoyed, couldn't hide its begrudging respect. Cameron is as comparable to Bush as Blair was to Clinton. All he actually describes is a man capable of presenting what the electorate want to see whilst holding his party together long enough to carry it off. I don’t personally subscribe to that view, but that’s another matter.

I agreed with George Pascoe Watson of the Sun who was very impressed by his PMQ’s performance. "He so unnerved Blair that he forgot to congratulate him until it was too late..." It may be a small point but it speaks volumes about how little control and poise Blair had at that moment.

BBC’s Newsnight spotted Brown actually helping Blair during his answers (by leaning forward and shouting the word “money” at him). Yes Brown helped Blair. What on earth is going on?

Most interesting is that his opponents are at sixes and sevens over how best to attack him. The more divided they are the weaker the attacks and the more likely he will be to survive them. More than ever New Labour need their pagers and their robot controllers at Millbank, but they are gone and it shows.
They really have nowhere to turn. Inverse snobbery won't work as it represents a world to which an ever increasing number of people aspire in order to break free from the appalling state and inexperience won't wash as he leads a team full of experience and talent.

In my opinion Labour are about to make a hash of it. They appear to be coming to rest of the "paint him as a right wing wolf in sheep’s clothing" forgetting that that is precisely what they have leading them and precisely what the electorate have told us three times that they want.
Its the ideal solution. Cameron spends the next three years confidently espousing compassion and tolerance in a way that looks right and will reassure and attract many, whilst Labour constantly remind us that he is right wing at heart.

We must stop focussing on Blair and Brown and analyse the electorate.

Within the appointments made so far, the real pressure has been placed firmly with DD. DD is now in check mate. With his reputation now so highly publicised during the campaign, he simply must perform loyally or he can be disposed of without any damage to the Party. Liam Fox would then wrap up the right and step in.

Very not happy over Maude's re-appointment as Party Chairman. That is DC's first mistake. Maude is thoroughly un-intelligent and unappealing. He is sycophantic, slimy, smarmy and an opportunist. Portillo, to his credit, eventually had the good grace to concede that he could never be the acceptable face of compassionate conservatism. Maude should do the same. It is like watching a fuddy duddy with a comb-over trying to disco dance.

It bloody annoys me that Defense is considered a non job. It is not and I am pleased to see Liam Fox (my old boss and the other man who made a considerable impact during the contest) accept it regardless of how he may or may not be feeling. Yes it is not one of the biggies, but Liam is shrewd and plays a cunning game. Liam knows that having Hague back is worth the pain and he gets to play very closely with Hague which he will enjoy enormously. Defense and Foreign Affairs always go hand in hand.

It is to our undying shame that we Tories allowed the abominable Geoff Who(n) to survive the War. With ever increasing pressure on Iraq withdrawal, the mindless regionalisation of our regiments and political correctness costing lives, Liam will most certainly have a stage and with good advice could uncover all sorts of crap that this Govt forces our troops to endure. They are a naturally conservative audience and long for someone to offer them the chance to vent their spleen over their treatment over the years. (I was one of them in Kosovo in 1999 - a complete sham of an expedition and a gratuitous grandstanding exercise by Mr Bliar. Don't get me started!). Woo the generals and the troops, Liam, and you will have fun while you wait for the tide to turn in your favour.

So much more to follow.